MONDAY MONSOON BURST” WARNING – The start of the week brings a marked surge in moist monsoon air over Bali. BMKG has issued an early warning for prolonged heavy rainfall, raising the risk of surface flooding across southern Bali and secondary landslides in the Ubud and Gianyar regions, where ground conditions remain saturated.
1. Daily Forecast Summary & RealFeel
Sources: AccuWeather & Weather Underground
| Parameter | Today’s Forecast | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | 24°C – 30°C | Cooler daytime conditions due to persistent cloud cover. |
| RealFeel Temperature | Around 33°C | Despite lower temperatures, humidity near 96% keeps conditions uncomfortable. |
| Peak Rain Window | 10:30 – 16:00 WITA | Rain expected to start earlier and last longer than on Sunday. |
| Wind Speed | 30 – 60 km/h | Strong and steady westerly winds with frequent gusts. |
2. Regional Weather Forecast (Key Areas)
Sources: Windy.com & BMKG
- Ubud & Central Bali – CRITICAL CONDITIONS
After more than ten consecutive days of rainfall, soil moisture has reached saturation limits. Jalan Raya Ubud remains under close monitoring. The risk of landslides along river cliffs is extremely high. - Canggu, Seminyak & Kuta
High potential for tidal flooding and road inundation along main streets. Strong coastal winds may lift lightweight objects. Secure outdoor villa furniture. - Uluwatu & Bukit Peninsula
Strong southwesterly winds make motorbike travel unstable. Visibility during heavy rain may drop to around 100 meters. - Sanur & Denpasar
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected around midday. Severe traffic congestion is likely at known flood-prone intersections.
3. High-Risk Zones and Safety Alerts
Source: BMKG Hydrometeorological Analysis
- Geological Hazard (Landslides)
Primary concern in Gianyar (Tegallalang, Payangan) and Bangli. Avoid rural routes that cut across steep slopes during intense rainfall. - Falling Trees Risk
Following recent incidents in Puspem Badung, today carries a high risk of broken branches. Parking under roadside trees or large billboards is strongly discouraged. - Wildlife Awareness
Prolonged heavy rain often forces snakes and monitor lizards out of natural habitats into residential areas. Stay alert near gardens and riverbanks.
4. Maritime and Transport Conditions
Source: Windy.com ECMWF Model
- Wave Height
Southern Indian Ocean swell remains extreme at 4.0 – 5.5 meters. Strong undercurrents are present. All southern beaches are under a strict no-swimming status. - Sea Crossings
Fast boat services (Sanur–Nusa Penida) and the Gilimanuk–Ketapang ferry may face disruptions or schedule delays if wind speeds exceed operational safety limits. - Land Access
Alternative access to Ubud via Desa Mas remains congested. Use real-time navigation apps to avoid newly formed bottlenecks caused by standing water.
5. Practical Guidance for Today
| Situation | Recommended Action |
|---|---|
| Daily Plans | Complete outdoor activities before 10:30 WITA, ahead of peak rainfall. |
| Home & Villa Safety | Clear drainage channels to prevent water from backing up into buildings. |
| Health Precautions | Extreme humidity and pressure changes may lower immunity. Stay dry, take supplements if needed, and avoid direct exposure to rain. |
6. Safety Advice for Expats and Tourists in Bali
For Visitors
Expect slower travel times and sudden route changes. Avoid riverwalks, rice field paths, and low-lying coastal roads during heavy rain.
For Residents and Long-Stay Expats
Monitor local advisories closely. Landslide risks may persist even after rain eases, especially in Ubud and Gianyar.
Bottom Line
Monday’s weather is defined by long-duration rainfall, saturated ground, and steady monsoon winds. Caution, early planning, and flexibility are essential throughout the day.
Forecast References
BMKG official early warnings and hydrometeorological analysis
Windy.com ECMWF wind and wave models
AccuWeather RealFeel data
Weather Underground station observations across Bali