DENPASAR, Bali — Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) is closely monitoring a newly formed tropical cyclone seed, designated 96S, in the Indian Ocean south of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB). While the system currently has a low probability of developing into a named tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours, its influence is expected to bring significant indirect weather impacts to parts of the Indonesian archipelago, including Bali, through Saturday, December 27, 2025.
The weather disturbance, first detected in the early hours of December 24, presents a evolving situation for residents and travelers in the region. According to the BMKG, the primary concerns are heightened rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous sea conditions.
Projected Impacts for Bali and Surrounding Regions
The agency’s analysis indicates that Cyclone Seed 96S will affect weather patterns through atmospheric interaction, even without reaching full cyclone strength. The following effects are forecast until 7:00 AM local time on December 27:
- Increased Rainfall: Moderate to heavy rain is anticipated for the regions of NTB and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT).
- Strong Winds: Coastal areas from southern Bali through NTT are advised to prepare for gusty conditions.
- Hazardous Sea States: Mariners and coastal communities are urged to exercise extreme caution. The BMKG forecasts high waves between 1.25 to 2.5 meters for waters south of Central Java to East Java, the Indian Ocean south of Central Java to Yogyakarta, the waters south of Lombok to Timor Island, and the Sawu Sea.
More critically, waves between 2.5 to 4.0 meters are predicted for the southern part of the Bali Strait and the Indian Ocean south of East Java to NTT.
Separate System: Tropical Cyclone Grant Persists
In a separate marine weather development, Tropical Cyclone Grant continues its trajectory in the Indian Ocean. As of the latest update, the system is located southwest of Bengkulu with maximum sustained winds of 50 knots (approximately 95 km/h). The BMKG forecasts that Grant will maintain its Category 2 intensity over the next 24 hours while moving in a westward direction, away from the Indonesian mainland. This system is not expected to directly impact Bali’s weather.
Practical Guidance for Bali’s Residents and Visitors
For the international community in Bali—including expatriates, tourists, and maritime operators—this weather advisory calls for informed preparedness rather than alarm.
- Maritime Activities: Postpone all non-essential sea travel, including day trips to Nusa Penida, Lembongan, or the Gili Islands, from now through Saturday. Ferry services may experience delays or cancellations. Those already on dive or boat tours should heed all instructions from captains and tour operators.
- Coastal and Riverside Caution: Avoid recreational activities along southern beaches like Uluwatu, Padang Padang, and Dreamland due to strong surf and rip currents. Be mindful of sudden water rises in rivers and canals.
- Land Travel Preparedness: If traveling by scooter or car, especially across the island or through rural areas, anticipate potentially slippery roads and reduced visibility during heavy downpours. Allow extra travel time.
- Stay Updated: Monitor official sources for updates. The BMKG provides regular updates through its website and social media channels. Reliable local news outlets and community groups are also valuable for real-time information on local conditions.