Sources indicate American intelligence, rather than traditional diplomats, is spearheading initial US efforts to forge relationships and shape the political landscape in the oil-rich nation.
WASHINGTON D.C., United States — In a contested and fluid political transition following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro, the United States is reportedly turning to its Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to establish a critical initial foothold in Venezuela, according to sources familiar with the planning. This approach underscores a calculated shift in strategy by the Trump administration, prioritizing intelligence operatives over diplomats to navigate the country’s still-volatile security and political landscape.
While the US State Department is tasked with leading long-term diplomatic engagement, current planning allegedly relies on the CIA to spearhead re-entry into the South American nation. The rationale, as conveyed to CNN International, is the unstable on-the-ground reality. “State puts up the flag, but CIA holds the real influence,” one source stated, highlighting the tactical advantage of covert channels in a delicate environment.
The CIA’s Reported Mandate: Building Bridges and Gathering Intelligence
The agency’s immediate objectives are said to be twofold: cultivating deep relationships across Venezuela’s political spectrum and ensuring security for future American personnel. This involves establishing an attachment office, enabling clandestine communication with Venezuelan intelligence—contacts difficult through formal diplomatic routes.
Agents are also reportedly tasked with informal outreach to both government and opposition figures to identify and mitigate potential threats from third parties like China, Russia, or Iran, which could disrupt the transition.
Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, the first senior Trump-era official to visit Venezuela after Maduro’s capture, has reportedly delivered a clear message: Venezuela must no longer be a safe haven for America’s adversaries.
The CIA is now positioned to provide Venezuelan officials with intelligence briefings on the activities of those rival nations within their borders.
A Calculated Choice of Leadership
The intelligence community’s analysis appears to have directly influenced Washington’s political calculus. Reports indicate that the Trump administration’s decision to back interim President Delcy Rodriguez, a long-time Maduro ally turned transitional figure, over opposition leader Maria Machado was informed by classified CIA assessments weighing the risks of a post-Maduro power vacuum. Sources caution that the political arrangement remains fragile and subject to rapid change.
The CIA’s groundwork was laid months in advance. A small team was covertly deployed as early as August to track Maduro’s movements and locations, paving the way for the eventual operation.
Parallel Diplomatic Steps and Lingering Challenges
Alongside this intelligence push, the State Department has begun preliminary steps to reopen the US embassy in Caracas, closed since 2019. Veteran diplomat Laura Dogu has been appointed to lead the Venezuela Affairs Unit, and technical teams are assessing the embassy’s condition. This diplomatic track aligns with President Trump’s stated ambition to quickly reintroduce US oil companies to help rebuild Venezuela’s economy.
However, significant challenges persist. Field personnel reportedly await more concrete policy direction from the White House amid a fluctuating security situation. Furthermore, they must contend with a deep-seated, historically cultivated anti-CIA sentiment fostered by the former Maduro regime, complicating efforts to build trust.
A Global Lens from Bali
For Bali’s global community of expatriates, entrepreneurs, and observers of international affairs, this reported strategy offers a case study in modern statecraft. It illustrates how major powers may leverage intelligence assets—not just for information gathering, but as primary instruments of political engagement and influence in unstable environments. The unfolding situation in Venezuela serves as a reminder of the complex, often unseen geopolitical currents that shape global stability, energy markets, and international relations far beyond their immediate region.
