After consecutive days of unstable conditions, today brings a different and more dangerous threat. Windy models indicate a strong Westerly Burst sweeping across South and Central Bali. This pattern significantly increases the risk of falling trees, coastal hazards, and major marine disruptions. Soil conditions around Ubud remain in a critical state, keeping landslide risk elevated.
1. Daily Forecast Summary & RealFeel
Sources: AccuWeather & Weather Underground
| Parameter | Today’s Forecast | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | 25°C – 29°C | Slightly cooler due to thick cloud cover throughout the day. |
| RealFeel Temperature | ~33°C | Very high humidity (around 94%) makes the air feel heavy and uncomfortable. |
| Peak Rain Window | 11:00 – 16:30 WITA | Heavy rain and strong winds expected to start earlier than previous days. |
| Wind Speed | 35 – 60 km/h | Persistent strong southwesterly winds, capable of damaging light structures. |
2. Regional Weather Forecast (Key Areas)
Sources: Windy.com & BMKG
- Ubud & Gianyar – HIGH ALERT
Soil structures near the collapsed section of Jalan Raya Ubud (Dewa Indra area) remain extremely fragile. Today’s heavy rainfall may trigger further erosion or minor ground shifts. - Canggu, Kuta & Seminyak
Strong onshore winds blowing directly from the sea. Sand, debris, and marine waste may be pushed onto coastal roads. Localized flooding possible in low-lying areas. - Uluwatu & Bukit Peninsula
Wind exposure along open cliff roads is hazardous, especially for motorbikes. Sunset plans at exposed cliff viewpoints should be postponed. - Sanur & Denpasar
Widespread rainfall from midday onward. Expect localized flooding on major Denpasar routes during peak hours.
3. High-Risk Zones and Safety Alerts
Source: BMKG Hydrometeorological Analysis
- Landslide Risk
Ubud, Tegallalang, and Payangan soils are fully saturated. Avoid activities near slopes, riverbanks, or excavation sites. - Falling Trees
Referencing the recent incident in Puspem Badung, today presents one of the highest wind-related risks this week. Do not park under mature or roadside trees. - Coastal Hazard
Peak wave energy increases the risk of rogue waves. Avoid standing too close to shorelines, even during brief breaks in rain.
4. Maritime and Transport Conditions
Source: Windy.com ECMWF Model
- Wave Height
Indian Ocean swell reaches 4.5 – 6.0 meters. STATUS: RED / EXTREME. All marine tourism activities should be suspended. - Sea Crossings
Fast boats (Sanur–Nusa Penida) and ferries (Gilimanuk–Ketapang) may face total suspension if wind speeds exceed 30 knots in the strait. - Road Access
Central Ubud main routes remain closed. Traffic volume on Desa Mas alternative routes is extremely high. Allow an additional 60 minutes for travel.
5. Practical Guidance for Today
| Situation | Recommended Action |
|---|---|
| Strong Winds | Secure umbrellas, poolside furniture, and loose outdoor items immediately. |
| Riding Conditions | Wear fitted rain gear only. Ponchos are dangerous in high wind due to entanglement risk. |
| Heavy Rain Periods | Avoid stopping under bridges or roadside trees to prevent secondary traffic congestion. |
| Wildlife Movement | Expect increased encounters with wildlife seeking dry ground. Stay calm and give distance. |
6. Safety Advice for Expats and Tourists in Bali
For Residents and Long-Stay Expats
Limit non-essential travel during peak wind hours. Monitor local WhatsApp banjar updates and official advisories, as road conditions may change quickly.
For Visitors
Postpone marine activities and cliffside sightseeing today. Follow hotel guidance closely and remain indoors during peak wind and rain periods.
Key Reminder
Today’s main threat is not just rain, but sustained wind strength. Even without severe thunderstorms, damage can occur rapidly. Conservative planning is the safest option.
Data Sources & Forecast Models
- BMKG: Official warnings and hydrometeorological risk analysis
- Windy.com: ECMWF wind and wave models
- AccuWeather: RealFeel temperature and timing forecasts
- Weather Underground: Community weather stations across Bali
