Peak rainy season conditions persist across Bali, with a high level of hydrometeorological risk. Continuous heavy rainfall has pushed soil saturation to critical levels, significantly increasing the likelihood of landslides and flooding.
Compared to the previous day, overall risk remains elevated, with little recovery time for ground conditions and sustained westerly winds adding stress to already vulnerable areas.
1. Daily Forecast Summary & RealFeel
Sources: AccuWeather & Weather Underground
| Parameter | Today’s Forecast | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | 24°C – 30°C | Stable temperatures, but humidity has reached peak levels. |
| RealFeel Temperature | 34°C – 35°C | Air feels extremely heavy and sticky due to humidity above 90%. |
| Peak Rain Window | 13:00 – 19:00 WITA | Heavy rain with thunderstorms likely over highlands and southern Bali. |
| Wind Speed | 20 – 45 km/h | Persistent westerly burst from the northwest. |
2. Regional Weather Forecast (Key Tourist Areas)
Sources: Windy.com & BMKG
Ubud & Gianyar — Critical Status
The main Jalan Raya Ubud near the Dewa Indra statue remains fully closed following a 20-meter road collapse. The risk of secondary landslides remains very high in Banjar Ambengan and Peliatan.
Badung & Denpasar
Increased risk of falling trees, particularly around the government complex (Puspem) and major arterial roads. Previous incidents have already caused vehicle damage during strong winds.
Uluwatu & Bukit Peninsula
Sudden, strong gusts along limestone cliffs. Conditions are hazardous for motorcyclists and anyone near exposed edges.
Gilimanuk Area
Possible temporary suspension of ferry crossings if wind speed and wave height exceed safe maritime thresholds.
3. High-Risk Zones and Hazard Advisory
Sources: BMKG & Hey Bali Analysis
Infrastructure Hazard
Avoid central Ubud unless absolutely necessary. Emergency works and total road closures are ongoing, with limited access for non-essential traffic.
Vegetation and Signage Risk
Do not park under large trees or aging billboards, especially when winds intensify during the afternoon.
Wildlife Awareness
Prolonged rain may force wildlife such as monitor lizards into drier areas, including beaches and residential zones. Stay calm, give space, and avoid sudden movements if encountered.
4. Maritime and Transport Conditions
Source: Windy.com ECMWF Model
Wave Height
Southern Indian Ocean swells reaching 3.5 – 5.0 meters. Extremely dangerous for all water-based activities along the south coast.
Sea Crossings
Gilimanuk–Ketapang ferry route remains on alert status and may be closed at short notice if conditions deteriorate.
Land Access
Travelers heading to Ubud must use alternative routes via Desa Mas or back roads due to the complete closure of the main access road.
5. Practical Guidance for Today
Plan Flexibility
Prioritize situational awareness over fixed schedules. Extreme weather can change road and travel conditions without warning.
Wildlife Etiquette
If encountering a monitor lizard on the beach or near housing areas, allow it to pass without interference to avoid defensive behavior.
Property Safety
Secure lightweight items on villa balconies and outdoor areas. Strong winds are expected to persist into the evening.
6. Safety Advice for Expats and Tourists in Bali
For Long-Stay Expats
Stay updated with local advisories and community alerts. Limit movement during peak rain hours, especially in landslide-prone zones.
For Short-Term Tourists
Avoid highland destinations, cliff areas, and southern beaches. Shift plans to indoor activities and follow hotel guidance closely.
Key Reminder
During peak rainy season, hazards often remain even when rain briefly stops. Landslides, fallen trees, and sudden closures can occur without warning.
Data Sources & Forecast Models
• BMKG: Official early warnings and hydrometeorological risk assessment
• Windy.com: ECMWF wind, wave, and rainfall modeling
• AccuWeather: RealFeel temperature and hourly forecast
• The Weather Channel / Weather Underground: Community data and hyperlocal accuracy
