After relatively unstable conditions on Wednesday, today’s weather is expected to turn sharper and more disruptive. Radar analysis indicates the potential for short-duration but highly intense storm cells triggered by wind convergence over the Bali Strait. With soil conditions already heavily saturated, the risk of sudden landslides across Ubud and Central Bali is elevated.
1. Daily Forecast Summary & RealFeel
Sources: AccuWeather & Weather Underground
| Parameter | Today’s Forecast | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | 25°C – 30°C | Feels cooler during heavy rain, then quickly heats up when sunlight breaks through. |
| RealFeel Temperature | ~35°C | Sauna-like effect due to strong evaporation after rainfall. |
| Peak Rain Window | 12:30 – 17:30 WITA | Fast-moving thunderstorms approaching from the west. |
| Wind Speed | 30 – 55 km/h | Sudden squalls likely just before storms develop. |
2. Regional Weather Forecast (Key Tourist Areas)
Sources: Windy.com & BMKG
- Ubud & Gianyar – CRITICAL STATUS
Following the 20-meter road collapse near the Dewa Indra statue (18/12), today’s rainfall may further destabilize surrounding ground. Heavy congestion is expected along alternative routes via Desa Mas. - Canggu & Seminyak
Intense rain bursts with strong winds during the afternoon. Avoid staying near construction zones or unsecured billboards. - Uluwatu & Bukit Peninsula
Wind speeds along cliff edges may exceed 50 km/h. Beachgoers should watch for sudden sea level surges and rough shoreline conditions. - Kintamani
Very dense fog combined with cold rain. Driving visibility may drop below 15 meters.
3. High-Risk Zones and Hazard Advisory
Source: BMKG Hydrometeorological Analysis
- Landslide Threat
High concern for river slopes and steep terrain in Ubud, Payangan, and Susut. The soil has reached full saturation and may fail without warning. - Falling Trees and Vegetation Risk
Referencing recent incidents in Puspem Badung, do not park under large roadside trees even if morning conditions appear calm. - High Lightning Activity
Southern Bali may experience frequent lightning late afternoon. Unplug non-essential electronic devices during storms.
4. Maritime and Transport Conditions
Source: Windy.com ECMWF Model
- Southern Coast Waves
Wave heights of 4.0 – 5.5 meters. STATUS: DANGEROUS. Swimming and surfing are strongly discouraged. - Fast Boat Routes
Most Sanur–Nusa Penida/Lembongan operators are likely to delay or suspend afternoon departures due to wind and swell. - Ngurah Rai Airport (DPS)
Possible flight delays, especially on western approach paths affected by squall activity.
5. Practical Guidance for Today
| Condition | Recommended Action |
|---|---|
| Peak Storm Window | Arrive at destinations before 13:00 WITA to avoid storms and severe congestion. |
| Strong Winds | Secure loose items on balconies and outdoor dining areas. |
| Wildlife Movement | Ensure villa gates and screens are closed; snakes and monitor lizards may seek higher ground. |
| Power Stability | Prepare power banks and emergency lighting in case of outages from fallen trees. |
6. Safety Advice for Expats and Tourists in Bali
For Long-Stay Expats
Remain alert to rapid changes in local road access, especially around Ubud and Central Bali. Monitor official updates and avoid unnecessary travel during peak storm hours.
For Short-Term Tourists
Reconsider outdoor and marine activities today. Follow hotel and local authority guidance, particularly if staying near rivers, cliffs, or open coastline.
Key Reminder
Extreme weather in Bali can escalate quickly. Calm conditions in the morning do not guarantee safety later in the day. Plan conservatively and prioritize personal safety over schedules.
Data Sources & Forecast Models
- BMKG: Official early warnings and hydrometeorological risk analysis
- Windy.com: ECMWF wind, wave, and rainfall models
- AccuWeather: RealFeel temperature and hourly forecast
- Weather Underground: Community weather stations across Bali
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