NEW YEAR’S EVE STORM” WARNING – This report is prepared specifically for New Year’s Eve, using real-time BMKG data and global atmospheric models to help keep celebrations safe. A dense concentration of Cumulonimbus clouds is expected to peak from late afternoon into the night. BMKG has issued an early warning for prolonged thunderstorms and strong winds. Outdoor celebrations face a high risk of disruption due to extreme weather.
1. Daily Forecast Summary & RealFeel
Sources: AccuWeather & Weather Underground
| Parameter | Today’s Forecast | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | 24°C – 31°C | Conditions become increasingly sultry toward midday. |
| RealFeel Temperature | Around 38°C | Humidity near 96 percent drives a high heat index before storms develop. |
| Peak Rain Window | 14:00 – 21:00 WITA | Heavy rain may persist into the countdown hours. |
| Wind Speed | 35 – 70 km/h | Sudden squalls capable of damaging outdoor tents and decorations. |
2. Regional Weather Forecast (Key Areas)
Sources: Windy.com & BMKG
- Canggu, Kuta & Seminyak – CAUTION STATUS
Afternoon storms may cause surface flooding on main roads. Strong coastal winds make beach club parties particularly vulnerable. - Ubud & Central Bali – CRITICAL CONDITION
Soil saturated since 18 December remains at its highest landslide risk. Access to central Ubud is still restricted due to road repairs, with severe traffic congestion expected. - Uluwatu & Bukit Peninsula
Extreme westerly winds. Fireworks launches may be unsafe due to wind speed and direction instability. - Denpasar
High probability of frequent lightning activity during the evening and nighttime hours.
3. High-Risk Zones and Safety Alerts
Source: BMKG Hydrometeorological Analysis
- Very High Landslide Threat
Cliff and slope areas in Ubud, Gianyar, and Bangli remain extremely fragile after December’s cumulative rainfall. - Tree and Structural Hazards
Parking beneath large trees or billboards is strongly discouraged. Event organizers must ensure stages, lighting rigs, and truss systems meet high wind-load safety standards. - Wildlife Awareness
Intense rainfall is driving snakes and monitor lizards into drier residential areas. Stay alert in open villa spaces and gardens.
4. Maritime and Transport Conditions
Source: Windy.com ECMWF Model
- Wave Height
Southern Indian Ocean waves reach 4.5 – 6.0 meters with deadly rip currents. Swimming is strictly prohibited along all southern beaches. - Fast Boat Services
Sanur to Nusa Penida or Lembongan crossings are highly likely to be fully suspended after 14:00 WITA due to worsening sea conditions. - Land Transport
Exceptional congestion is expected across South Bali. If traveling by motorbike, use a fitted rain suit. Otherwise, depart up to four hours earlier than usual.
5. Practical Guidance for Tonight
| Situation | Recommended Action |
|---|---|
| New Year’s Eve Events | Choose venues with permanent indoor shelter. Avoid taking cover under fabric tents during strong winds. |
| Fireworks Use | Exercise extreme caution. Gusty winds can redirect fireworks toward homes, trees, or crowds. |
| Route Planning | Use real-time navigation apps to track flooded roads and closures, especially around central Ubud. |
6. Safety Advice for Expats and Tourists in Bali
For New Year’s Celebrations
Expect weather disruptions even if conditions appear calm early in the evening. Storms may intensify rapidly without long warning.
For Long-Stay Residents and Expats
Avoid unnecessary night travel through hillside or river-adjacent routes. Landslide risk remains elevated well after rainfall peaks.
Key Takeaway
New Year’s Eve 2025 in Bali is marked by heat buildup, strong winds, and long-duration thunderstorms. Celebrate cautiously, stay informed, and prioritize safe locations over outdoor spectacle.
Forecast References
BMKG real-time early warnings
Windy.com ECMWF wind and wave models
AccuWeather RealFeel analysis
Weather Underground local station data across Bali
