PRE–NEW YEAR SQUALL” WARNING – As Bali moves closer to New Year’s Eve, extreme weather variability remains dominant. Windy analysis indicates a developing low-pressure system south of Bali, actively drawing in large volumes of moist air. Expect short-duration but potentially destructive storm cells this afternoon. Ground conditions in Ubud and Gianyar are assessed as highly unstable.
1. Daily Forecast Summary & RealFeel
Sources: AccuWeather & Weather Underground
| Parameter | Today’s Forecast | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | 25°C – 31°C | Morning heat feels sharp and intense before cloud build-up. |
| RealFeel Temperature | Around 38°C | High humidity pushes the heat index to extreme levels ahead of storms. |
| Peak Rain Window | 13:00 – 17:30 WITA | Strong thunderstorm cells; isolated hail possible in highland areas. |
| Wind Speed | 30 – 65 km/h | Sudden gusts from the west–northwest linked to squall lines. |
2. Regional Weather Forecast (Key Areas)
Sources: Windy.com & BMKG
- Ubud & Central Bali – RED STATUS
After persistent rainfall since 18 December, soil along riverbanks and cliff edges is highly prone to movement. Safety-related access restrictions remain in place around Jalan Raya Ubud. - Canggu, Seminyak & Kuta
High risk of intense thunderstorms. Short-lived flash flooding may occur along shortcut roads where drainage systems overflow quickly. - Uluwatu & Bukit Peninsula
Strong westerly winds dominate. Beachgoers should be alert to sudden sea-level surges and rapidly changing coastal conditions. - Denpasar
Widespread rain from midday onward, accompanied by frequent and strong lightning activity.
3. High-Risk Zones and Safety Alerts
Source: BMKG Hydrometeorological Analysis
- Extreme Landslide Threat
Primary concern areas include Banjar Ambengan, Peliatan, and Tegallalang. Avoid routes that cut through steep ravines during active rainfall. - Falling Trees and Infrastructure Risk
Following recent incidents in Puspem Badung, parking beneath large trees, billboards, or overhead power lines is strongly discouraged. - Lightning Hazard
Southern Bali is forecast to experience high-frequency lightning this afternoon. Move indoors and seek shelter in solid structures immediately when storms approach.
4. Maritime and Transport Conditions
Source: Windy.com ECMWF Model
- Wave Height
Southern Indian Ocean conditions remain very dangerous, with wave heights between 4.0 – 5.5 meters. Swimming is strictly prohibited along all southern beaches. - Sea Crossings
Fast boat services from Sanur to Nusa Penida or Lembongan face a high risk of full cancellation if westerly winds exceed 30 knots. - Land Traffic
Alternative routes into Ubud remain heavily congested. Travelers heading to Ngurah Rai Airport this afternoon are advised to depart at least three hours earlier to allow for flooding-related delays.
5. Practical Guidance for Today
| Situation | Recommended Action |
|---|---|
| New Year’s Eve Preparation | If planning outdoor events for tomorrow night, prepare covered or indoor alternatives as unsettled weather is likely to persist. |
| Wildlife Awareness | Prolonged saturation is pushing wildlife toward drier ground. Stay alert around villa gardens and open drainage areas. |
| Electronic Safety | Unplug sensitive devices once nearby thunder is heard to reduce the risk of power surge damage. |
6. Safety Advice for Expats and Tourists in Bali
For Visitors
Plan movements carefully during the afternoon. Avoid river paths, cliff-edge viewpoints, and low-lying shortcuts when storms develop rapidly.
For Residents and Long-Stay Expats
Remain cautious even during brief dry intervals. Landslide risk does not immediately subside once rain stops, particularly in Ubud and Gianyar.
Key Takeaway
Tuesday’s conditions are defined by extreme heat buildup followed by sudden, violent squalls. Stay weather-aware, expect disruptions, and prioritize safety as Bali approaches the New Year transition.
Forecast References
BMKG early warnings and hydrometeorological assessments
Windy.com ECMWF wind and wave models
AccuWeather RealFeel analysis
Weather Underground local station data across Bali
