BALI — The perception that Bali feels quieter this year is not without basis. According to provincial data, the number of domestic tourists travelling to the island in 2025 has fallen by as many as 700,000 visitors, a decline the Bali government attributes largely to limited flight capacity and shifting travel preferences within Indonesia.
Bali Governor Wayan Koster confirmed the downturn during a review of year-end travel readiness at I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport, ahead of the Christmas 2025 and New Year 2026 holiday period, known locally as Nataru.
“The main issue is aircraft availability,” Koster said in Badung on Sunday. “Seats to Bali are consistently full, not because demand is weak, but because the number of operating aircraft has dropped.”
Fewer Planes, Fewer Seats
An inspection carried out by the Bali provincial government alongside airport authorities found that several airlines are currently operating with reduced fleets due to major maintenance schedules.
Indonesia’s flag carrier Garuda Indonesia, which typically deploys 11 aircraft on Bali routes, is currently operating only nine. Meanwhile, Citilink has cut its Bali service capacity even more sharply, flying just six aircraft compared with its usual 11, as nearly half of its fleet undergoes maintenance.
The result has been a persistent shortage of available seats, making it increasingly difficult for domestic travellers to secure tickets — even during peak holiday periods.
“When planes are reduced, seats sell out quickly,” Koster explained. “This directly affects the number of Indonesian tourists who can travel to Bali.”
Domestic Tourists Turn to Java
Beyond aviation constraints, the governor also pointed to a broader shift in domestic travel behaviour. Improved toll road networks across Java have made land-based travel more attractive, particularly for families seeking more affordable and flexible holiday options.
“This is a natural trend,” Koster said. “With better toll roads in Java, people find it easier and cheaper to travel by car rather than fly.”
As a result, several destinations across Java have seen increased visitor numbers, while Bali — traditionally reliant on air travel — has felt the impact more acutely.
The Numbers Behind the Decline
By 26 December 2025, Bali had recorded 9.2 million domestic tourist visits, with projections suggesting the year will close at around 9.4 million. That figure represents a drop of approximately 600,000 to 700,000 visitors compared with 10.1 million domestic tourists in 2024.
Since the Nataru travel monitoring post opened on 15 December, authorities have recorded:
- 327,394 domestic passenger movements
- 176,510 arrivals to Bali
International Tourism Tells a Different Story
While domestic tourism has softened, international arrivals continue to rise. Governor Koster stressed that Bali’s tourism strategy is increasingly oriented toward the global market — and the numbers appear to support that approach.
Between 1 January and 26 December 2025, Bali welcomed 6.9 million international visitors, with total arrivals expected to reach 7.05 million by year’s end — an increase of roughly 700,000 foreign tourists compared with earlier projections.
According to Koster, this shift has helped stabilise Bali’s economy, particularly in terms of hotel occupancy, length of stay, and visitor spending.
“If people say Bali is quiet, the data says otherwise,” he said. “It’s not empty. In many areas, it’s actually very busy.”
A Different Kind of Crowded
For Bali, the issue is not a lack of visitors, but a change in who is coming — and how they arrive. With international tourism surging and domestic travel constrained by logistical realities, the island’s tourism landscape is evolving.
What may feel like “Bali sepi” on the surface, officials argue, is in fact a redistribution of visitors — shaped by infrastructure, airline capacity, and shifting travel habits across Indonesia.
