HEYBALI – For years, the prevailing assumption in Bali has been that the island produces more electricity than it needs. According to the state utility company, that assumption is wrong, and the reality could soon become impossible to ignore for anyone living on or visiting the island.
Indonesia’s state electricity company, PLN, has confirmed that Bali’s power reserve margin is dangerously thin, and that without new supply coming online, the island faces a scenario officials are calling “rolling power-on,” a rare and telling twist on the usual rolling blackout.
Correcting a Widespread Misconception
Ajrun Karim, General Manager of PLN’s Bali regional unit, was direct in dismantling a belief he says has taken hold across the island. “People assume Bali already has an energy surplus, but in reality, that’s not the case. If Bali doesn’t receive additional energy supply by 2027, there’s a real possibility we’ll see rolling power-on,” Karim said in Denpasar on Thursday, August 20.
The terminology itself is worth pausing on. Rather than a conventional rolling blackout, where power is deliberately cut in rotation, Bali’s scenario would work in reverse: supply would be so constrained that different areas would need to take turns actually having power at all.
A Margin Measured in Single Digits, Not Comfortable Surplus
The numbers behind the warning are what make it credible rather than alarmist. Bali’s peak electricity demand currently sits at approximately 1,295 to 1,300 megawatts, while the island’s total installed generation capacity across all power plants is only around 1,477 megawatts.
Do the math, and the buffer between demand and maximum capacity comes out to roughly 177 megawatts, a margin that sounds substantial until you factor in Bali’s steadily climbing electricity consumption year over year.
“Bali’s current peak load of 1,300 megawatts is supported by a mix of generation sources, gas turbine plants, combined-cycle gas plants, the Celukan Bawang coal plant, and Medco’s solar facility. That totals just 1,477 megawatts, and that’s assuming no equipment failures,” Karim explained.
That final qualifier, assuming no equipment failures, is doing a lot of work in that sentence. The 1,477-megawatt figure represents a best-case scenario, not a guaranteed baseline.
One Damaged Generator Is Already Cutting Into the Margin
That best-case scenario is currently not holding. Unit 5 of the Pesanggaran diesel power plant, with a capacity of 100 megawatts, is undergoing maintenance and overhaul, temporarily removing that capacity from Bali’s grid entirely.
To compensate, PLN has had to keep older diesel generators running, despite the noise and emissions typically associated with that technology, simply to avoid the alternative.
“With that 100 megawatts offline, we have no choice but to operate the diesel plants that people complain are noisy and produce emissions. If we don’t run them, we’ll end up with what’s called rolling power-on, not rolling blackouts, rolling power-on,” Karim said.
Bali Also Depends Heavily on Power Piped in From Java
Here’s a detail that surprises many residents and visitors alike: Bali’s grid isn’t self-sufficient at all. The island relies significantly on electricity transmitted from Java via four undersea cable circuits.
Each circuit has a maximum capacity of roughly 100 megawatts, though in practice they rarely run at full output.
“Right now, Bali still receives supply from Java through those four cable circuits, which have a maximum capacity of 100 megawatts each if fully operated. But they’re not run at full capacity, typically operating between 60 and 80 megawatts each. So currently we’re receiving roughly 270 megawatts from Java,” Karim said.
That dependency cuts both ways. If Java’s supply were ever disrupted at the same time local generation faced problems, Bali’s power situation could deteriorate faster than current projections suggest.
The Fix: A Major Solar Push Through 2029
To head off the worst-case scenario, PLN and the government are accelerating renewable energy infrastructure, with solar power at the center of the strategy.
Under Indonesia’s 2025-2034 Electricity Supply Business Plan, PLN is targeting an additional 1,450 megawatts of solar capacity, with the broader project slated for completion by 2029.
More urgently relevant to Bali’s timeline, roughly 600 megawatts of that new solar capacity is specifically targeted to come online in Bali by 2027, the exact year Karim identified as the tipping point.
Progress toward that goal, however, remains far behind schedule. Currently, only one solar facility operates within PLN’s Bali service area: a 25-megawatt plant owned by Medco in Kubu, Karangasem, a fraction of what’s needed.
Land Availability Is the Next Major Hurdle
Building out solar capacity at this scale requires significant land. Karim estimates each megawatt of solar capacity requires roughly one hectare of land, meaning the 600-megawatt target alone would require approximately 600 hectares.
To navigate that constraint, PLN says it will prioritize land that currently sits unused or unproductive.
“Our first priority will be non-productive land, arid land, forestry land, or land owned by communities that isn’t currently being maximized for any use,” Karim said.
A Countdown Now Underway
With 2027 approaching, the question for Bali is no longer whether the island needs additional power capacity. It’s whether solar infrastructure can be built out fast enough to outpace demand before rolling power shortages move from a warning into daily reality for residents, businesses, and the tourism industry the island depends on.
Source: DetikBali
