Local and regional atmospheric patterns are responsible for recent heavy rains, while forecasters monitor a separate system forming south of Lombok for potential impacts.
DENPASAR, Bali — Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has clarified that the recent spell of heavy rain and extreme weather affecting Bali is not caused by the developing Tropical Cyclone 91W. Instead, the conditions are driven by a combination of localized and regional atmospheric factors, as reported by Detik Bali.
Since the system was first detected on Monday, January 12, 2026, in the Pacific Ocean north of North Maluku, forecasters have been tracking its movement. “Bali is not affected because its position is far away, in the Philippine Sea north of North Maluku,” stated I Wayan Wirata, a forecaster at BMKG Region III Denpasar, on Thursday, January 15, 2026.
Wirata explained that Bali’s current weather is influenced by several converging elements: a concentration of moist air masses from the surface to the upper atmosphere, areas of wind convergence and turning near Bali, and warm sea surface temperatures. Furthermore, Bali is currently in its annual rainy season, which naturally increases the potential for raincloud formation.
While the intensity of Tropical Cyclone 91W is forecast to increase, it is moving away from the Indonesian archipelago and poses no direct threat to Bali’s weather.
Monitoring a Separate System South of Lombok
The agency is, however, monitoring a separate weather development. A new system, identified as Tropical Cyclone 96S, formed on Wednesday, January 14, in the Indian Ocean south of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB).
Unlike the distant 91W, this system is projected to influence weather and sea conditions in parts of Indonesia within a 24-hour period ending Friday morning, January 16. The potential impacts include moderate to heavy rain in East Java, Bali, and West Nusa Tenggara.
Mariners are advised of increased wave heights. The BMKG forecasts moderate waves of 1.25 to 2.5 meters in the Indian Ocean south of Central Java, waters south of Sumba Island, the Bali Strait, Lombok Strait, Sumba Strait, and the Savu Sea. Higher waves of 2.5 to 4 meters are possible in the Indian Ocean south of East Java to south of East Nusa Tenggara (NTT).
“BMKG always provides updated information regarding weather developments to relevant stakeholders,” Wirata emphasized.
The clarification helps residents and travelers in Bali understand that the ongoing wet conditions are part of the island’s typical seasonal pattern, amplified by specific atmospheric dynamics, rather than a direct result of a distant major storm system.
Hey Bali News provides updates from official sources to help the community and visitors understand and prepare for local weather conditions.
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