DENPASAR, Bali — The Regional Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BBMKG) in Denpasar has issued a significant early warning for hazardous sea conditions across Bali’s waters. The agency forecasts that waves could reach heights of up to four meters (13 feet) from December 27 through December 30, 2025, posing a serious risk to coastal communities and maritime activities.
The dangerous swell is attributed to the indirect influence of Tropical Cyclone Seed 96S, a weather system detected south of Indonesia. While the system has a low probability of developing into a full tropical cyclone, its distant effects are already altering wind and wave patterns in the region.
“An indirect impact from Tropical Cyclone Seed 96S is present,” explained Diana Siregar, a forecaster at BBMKG Region III Denpasar, in a statement reported by Antara News Agency on Friday, December 26. This disturbance is changing wind patterns over the waters around Bali, contributing directly to the increase in wave height.
High-Risk Zones and Wind Conditions
The agency has identified specific waterways where the most severe conditions, with waves between 2.5 and 4 meters, are expected:
- Southern Bali Strait
- Southern Lombok Strait
- Badung Strait
- Waters south of Bali
The northern Lombok Strait is forecast to experience slightly lower but still hazardous waves of 1.25 to 2.5 meters. Compounding the danger, wind speeds in both northern and southern Bali waters are predicted to reach up to 25 knots (approximately 46 km/h), which will further agitate the sea state.
Critical Safety Advisories for Mariners
In response to these forecasts, the BMKG has issued targeted safety advisories based on vessel type, urging extreme caution:
- Traditional fishing boats should be wary of winds over 15 knots and waves exceeding 1.25 meters.
- Barge operators are advised to exercise caution with winds of 16 knots and waves around 1.5 meters.
- Ferry operators must heighten alertness when facing winds of 21 knots and waves reaching 2.5 meters.
These warnings are particularly critical during the year-end holiday period (Nataru), which typically sees a sharp increase in maritime traffic for tourism and inter-island travel.
Implications for Bali’s Residents and Visitors
For Bali’s international community—expatriates, tourists, and maritime business operators—this official warning requires immediate and serious attention.
- Reconsider Sea Travel: Postpone all non-essential boat trips, including excursions to Nusa Penida, Lembongan, the Gili Islands, or diving/snorkeling tours. Ferry services may experience delays or cancellations.
- Coastal Caution: Avoid recreational activities on southern beaches (e.g., Uluwatu, Padang Padang, Dreamland) due to extremely dangerous surf, strong rip currents, and potential for sudden water rises.
- Heed Official Guidance: This alert follows a series of maritime incidents in the region linked to severe weather. The advisory is not speculative but based on concrete meteorological analysis. Respecting it is fundamental to personal safety.
- Stay Informed: Monitor updates directly from the BMKG website or app, and follow instructions from local harbor authorities.
This multi-day warning serves as a stark reminder of the powerful oceanic forces that shape life in the Indonesian archipelago. While Bali’s skies may appear clear, conditions at sea are dynamic and can be deceptively perilous. Prioritizing caution and adhering to official directives is the only responsible course of action until the alert is lifted.
