WATCH FOR “NEW YEAR MONSOON SHOWERS – The first day of 2026 opens with a humid and unstable atmosphere across Bali. While the morning is expected to remain mostly dry, BMKG highlights the potential for afternoon to evening thunderstorms, particularly inland. Ground conditions in Central Bali remain sensitive after prolonged December rainfall, keeping landslide risk elevated despite short dry breaks.
1. Daily Forecast Summary & RealFeel
Sources: AccuWeather & Weather Underground (Wet-Season Pattern)
| Parameter | Today’s Forecast | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | 25°C – 31°C | Warm and humid start to the year. |
| RealFeel Temperature | 35°C – 37°C | High humidity drives heat stress before rain develops. |
| Peak Rain Window | 14:00 – 19:00 WITA | Scattered to locally heavy thunderstorms possible. |
| Wind Speed | 20 – 45 km/h | Westerly winds, stronger near the coast. |
2. Key Area Weather Outlook
Sources: Windy.com & BMKG Seasonal Outlook
- Ubud & Central Bali: HIGH RISK ZONE. Afternoon rain may fall on already saturated slopes. Short but intense showers could trigger minor landslides along riverbanks and cut slopes.
- Canggu, Seminyak & Kuta: Partly cloudy morning, followed by afternoon showers. Watch for temporary surface flooding in low-lying streets during heavy bursts.
- Uluwatu & Bukit: Breezy conditions along exposed cliffs. Rain likely later in the day, with reduced visibility during downpours.
- Denpasar & Sanur: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain developing after midday; urban traffic may slow during peak rain hours.
3. Red Zone: Disaster & Safety Alerts
Based on hydrometeorological risk during peak rainy season
Landslide Risk: Elevated in Gianyar, Tegallalang, and parts of Bangli due to persistently wet soil conditions.
Falling Branches: Gusty winds ahead of storms can bring down weakened branches even without prolonged rain.
Thunderstorms: Lightning activity is possible in the afternoon and early evening.
4. Maritime & Transport Advisory
Windy.com ECMWF Model
- Southern Coast Swell: Moderate to high swell continues. Strong rip currents remain a concern along south-facing beaches.
- Fast Boats: Services to Nusa Penida and Lembongan may experience delays depending on afternoon sea conditions.
- Road Travel: Wet roads and short-term flooding may occur during storms. Allow extra travel time, especially inland.
5. Quick Action Tips
- Plan Early: Complete outdoor activities before early afternoon when storm risk increases.
- Heat Management: High humidity can cause fatigue quickly. Stay hydrated even if skies look overcast.
- Parking Awareness: Avoid parking under large trees or near drainage channels during cloudy afternoons.
6. Safety Advice for Expats and Tourists in Bali
- For Tourists: New Year’s Day weather may change quickly. Always have a backup indoor plan for afternoon activities.
- For Expats: Monitor localized warnings, especially if commuting through hilly or river-adjacent areas.
- General Reminder: January marks the approach of Bali’s rainy-season peak. Expect frequent showers, brief intense storms, and shifting travel conditions in the days ahead.
Forecast References
BMKG early warning system
Windy.com ECMWF wind and wave models
AccuWeather RealFeel analysis
Weather Underground local station data across Bali
